According to a WHO report on Covid-19 published on March 8, 2020, 1,05,586 cases have been confirmed globally and the death toll has risen to 3,584. The report also rates the situation as “very high” on risk assessment scale at both regional and global levels.
The emerging situation of panic has created too much hustle around the globe whether we talk of fall in economic indices, economic lockdown in China rupturing the entire manufacturing sector, chances of cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics, closing down of schools, increasing pressure on healthcare sector or travel restrictions. The fear of being affected and quarantined is widespread.
But imagine what if this impact could have been forecasted? Wouldn’t have this situation been better? In a recent paper published in Nature Physics, an Assistant Professor at the Network Science Institute of Northeastern University elucidates how a model that is used to predict social trends can project the scale of the spread of contagious diseases. Although he acknowledges it as a funny model, it can be used early in an outbreak to gain important insights about the progression of the epidemic. As more and more appearance of a meme in the social media space upsurges our interest, the probability of a person being infected with a disease increases as he/she interacts with more and more persons. So, if we deduce logically, we find that the number of people being affected is directly proportional to the number of interactions and that’s why it is ‘contagious’ and people are being isolated.
When a situation near to pandemic grips the world, the dreadful outcomes are exaggerated by the false forecasts and spread of rumors. Therefore, adequate measures to halt this should be taken simultaneously. With this, the problem of lack of medical equipment can be controlled because it has been found that most of these instruments have been wasted in false-positive tests. So, the availability of an appropriate model to forecast and control this surge can regulate the situation.
Kriti Vishwakarma